Predictions & The Ledger
What the money says — and what we say, on the record, with a scoreboard.
Markets are pulled from Kalshi and posted here as the Gremlin tracks them.
Odds reflect trader consensus, not certainty — thinly traded markets can swing hard.
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Choropleths are drawn live from U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-year estimates — the way the numbers actually fall.
Boundaries © Census TIGER / OpenStreetMap via MapLibre. Data served by the HAL maps API.
The rest of this site argues from principle and is built to read the same in 2036. This tab is different by design.
Every entry here is a dated, falsifiable call about the world — geopolitics, energy, currency, markets —
played out on one, three, and five year horizons. Each one states its claim, its reasoning, and the baseline
numbers at the moment it was made. When the clock runs out it gets graded HIT
or MISS, publicly, and it stays on the board either way.
Pundits predict and forget. We keep score.
Predictions are graded against the named public data source — EIA, IMF COFER, market closes — not vibes.
A missed call stays posted with its miss badge. That is the whole point.